September 6, 2009

Building Your Grocery Channel Sales Projections

Are you working on taking your product into the USA Grocery Market and attempting to build your business planning for production and captial needs?
In the USA, there are approximately 34,000 Grocery Stores with more than $ 2 million in yearly sales. There are thousands of items in these stores and when you look at them overall you can arrive at average sales per week per item. Today, the average retail sales per item per store per year is $ 364.
With this information, you can go about building your sales planning and case production needs for most any opportunity by account, market, or region. If you are in all 34,000 stores expect to have retail sales of around $ 12 million and $8 million or less in wholesale receipts.
Look at your business planning and develop a list of likely scenarios on product acceptance and possible new distribution. With this planning in hand, you should be able to build with an acceptable level of accuracy your actual case production and sales proforma.
The average grocery item does about $7 per week per location. What is your case count? Probably a dozen (12 units) What is your expected wholesale selling price? You can take this amount and divide into the market numbers below to figure your case needs for your efforts.
For example, if your wholesale selling price is $ 36 per case. In Chicago you will need 10,000 cases for the year in all stores. Per month 833 cases. It is unlikely you will get into all of these stores year 1 but it gives you an idea of the formula for planning. Start thinking of the largest chains once you have a success story to share. What is your plan or needed volume? How many stores will you need to meet the objective?
Your sales numbers would look something like this.
Number of stores X weekly volume X 52 = Yearly Dollar Volume
If you are in all the stores in Chicago - 330 x 2 items @ $ 7 per item x 52 = Yearly Retail Sales Dollars of $ 240,00 and your portion about $ 154,000 in wholesale sales. Also, I will be covering this same information in my upcoming webinar on Growth! for your business. If you would like further details drop me a line at tim@timforrest.com .
I hope this helps on your business planning and thought to share this with you while stepping off the beach with the triplets. They really enjoy playing on the beach and in the waves and this picture was taken several weeks ago after a facepainting party.
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